A 7-0-0 start. A 3-7-1 skid. A head coach fired. A legend brought in to replace him. Mediocrity. A team on the brink of missing the playoffs with under a week left in the season. A career-low point total for a superstar. The seventh seed. Two injured goaltenders. A first round upset of the defending Stanley Cup champions. A rookie takes the league by storm. Another second round exit.
It was an up-and-down season for the Washington Capitals. But as with all sports teams who don't get a parade, there's always next season. I'll take my best shot at sizing up the Caps roster, depth, strengths, and weakness for the eventual 2012-13 season. The key word here being "eventual," as NHL commissioner and woodland imp Gary Bettman has allowed the collective bargaining agreement between the player's association and the owners to expire for the third time in his nineteen-year career. Thanks a boatload, G-Betts.
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DO NOT WANT. |
[Note: Before reading my little piece of the internet, please read the analysis and opinions of those much more knowledgeable on these subjects than I am, notably
Japers' Rink and
Russian Machine Never Breaks, statistics from
Hockeydb.com and
Hockey-Reference.com, and salary info from
CapGeek. Many photos taken by Chris Gordon of RMNB.]
-- Coaching --
Dale Hunter was hired as head coach two months into last season. The idea was that a former Caps great would command respect in the locker room, and his defensive system would help Washington win close games, especially in the playoffs. Hunter succeeded in helping the Caps defensively -- they gave up 3.32 goals per game under Bruce Boudreau, and only 2.62 goals per game under Hunter in the regular season. Add in 2.14 goals per game allowed in the playoffs, and it's clear the players bought into his system in their own end. But they also struggled to score goals -- Hunter's Caps scored 2.53 goals per game in the regular season and a measly 2.07 goals per game in the playoffs. This was a recipe for close games, where every contest could be won or lost in a single shift, and every goal scored or defensive breakdown was magnified and scrutinized. While not exactly ideal for my blood pressure, it did enable the Caps to beat a better, more consistent team in Boston. And although their luck ran out in New York, it's hard to blame Dale for trying to do it his way.
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Hunter may be gone, but his animated .gifs live on forever. |
General manager George McPhee promised that he would take his time during the search for a new head coach, and in truth six weeks went by without anyone in place behind the bench. Earlier, I
cautioned against hiring a former legend, as history has shown little correlation between a great playing career and coaching a team to a Stanley Cup. But McPhee decided otherwise, and on June 28th he hired Adam Oates to take Hunter's place. Coincidentally, on that same day, Oates was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame for his storied playing career. Oates has some numbers that speak for themselves; 341 goals and 1,079 assists in 1,337 games, along with 42 goals and 114 assists in 163 playoff games, and five All-Star Game appearances. He is sixth all-time in assists. But what he doesn't have is a Stanley Cup, and he must believe Washington is a good place to begin his head coaching career in search of one. He spent the last three seasons as an NHL assistant, first in Tampa Bay and then New Jersey, where he just helped guide the Devils to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Oates has several things in common with Dale; both were centers, both were Capitals captains, both have long, impressive careers, and both looked like famous actors (Oates was a dead ringer for Ray Liotta, and Hunter kind of looks like a cross between Robin Williams and Patrick Swayze). But Oates is an improvement over Hunter in several aspects. First, he most certainly has a more creative offensive mind, and is given credit by the Devils faithful for running their power play and getting star forwards Ilya Kovalcuk and Zach Parise on track amid three head coaches in two years. Also, Oates is a superior communicator, already much more engaging to the DC press than Hunter ever was. How that will translate to the locker room is anyone's guess. Hunter certainly won over the room and was respected as "one of the guys." But in that regard, I'm guessing Oates will do just fine.
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"For most, being inducted into the Hall of Fame and getting their first head coaching gig is the most important day of their life. For me... it was Thursday." |
Also leaving the team are both of last season's assistants, Dean Evason and Jim Johnson. Evason, the lone holdover from the Boudreau era and the man who encouraged the Caps to "grab [their] fucking sack and fucking compete" in
24/7, was hired by the Nashville organization to be the head coach for their AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals. It's his first head coaching gig since the 2003-04 season, when he was the bench boss for the WHL's Vancouver Giants, and a great opportunity for Evason. Johnson is changing coasts and will be an assistant to Todd McLellan in San Jose. Along with Larry Robinson, that's quite a formidable coaching staff for the Sharks.
To replace them, McPhee and Oates brought in two familiar faces to the Caps organization. The first is Calle Johansson, the former blueliner who spent fourteen-plus years in Washington and holds the record for most games played in a Caps sweater at 983. Known for his solid two-way game, he played parts of six seasons with Oates, and has one year of coaching experience in his native Sweden. Calle Jo should shoulder much of the defensive responsibilities for the coaching staff next season.
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Rocking the red before it was a marketing ploy. |
The other assistant coach will be Tim Hunter, who was an assistant to Ron Wilson during Oates and Johansson's playing days. In fact, this will be (the new) Hunter's first NHL coaching job without Wilson also behind the bench. Hunter was known as a rough customer during his playing days, as he twice led the league in penalty minutes and finished his career with 3,146 PIMs in 815 games. His role will likely be to bring toughness, grit, and accountability to the forward ranks, letting Oates handle the offensive playmaking side of things.
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Dat nose. |
We'll get to the guys actually on the ice after the jump...
-- Players Entering the Off-season Under Contract -- (2012-13 salary cap number)
Forwards
LW Alex Ovechkin ($9.538M) - Another season, another chance at a Stanley Cup wasted. And no one shoulders more of the blame, fairly or unfairly, than Ovechkin. When the core of talent affectionately called "The Young Guns" was established, many questioned whether Ovechkin could lead them to postseason glory. I mean, he is Russian, after all. After two and a half seasons as team captain, the jury is still out on his leadership abilities. But at only 27 years old, Ovie still has plenty of time to reach the promised land. One big question is if he's ready to be an effective two-way player now that his goal totals have sagged as of late. During his first five years in Washington he averaged 53.8 goals per season, and only 35 over his last two. Another question lingering all summer was if McPhee would bring back his plucky sidekick, Alex Semin. There's been plenty of turnover during Ovie's tenure, and nothing has worked well enough to get him a taste of the conference finals. As owner Ted Leonsis remarked during HBO's
24/7 series, the team needs and expects to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin. Time to put up or shut up.
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"What are you doing here in the dark, man? Oh wait, it's mid May, you're not playing anymore. Carry on." |
C Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7M) - Ladies and germs, I present to you the best player on the Washington Capitals. Ovechkin might be the gap-toothed face of the franchise, but no one is more valuable to the team's success than Bäckis. He is the rarest of birds in today's NHL; the top-line center with vision, touch, a quick shot, and toughness. Nicklas kills penalties and can throw a shoulder check every now and then, as
Artem Anisimov found out. Backstrom missed 40 games last season, thanks to an atomic flying elbow from noted jackass Rene Bourque, but he still managed to finish fifth on the team in scoring. During his absence, the lack of depth up the middle for the Caps was never more evident, as Johansson and Perreault were inconsistent with top six minutes before Laich settled into his role centering Ovechkin's line. Looking forward, we can only hope for a healthy and effective Backstrom, as the team has him locked up for eight more seasons.
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I was too lazy to look up "Deal with it" in Swedish. Deal with it. |
C Brooks Laich ($4.5M) - Every team needs a few key components; a gritty jack-of-all-trades, a philanthropic heart-and-soul guy, and a man so handsome even your opponent's female fans swoon at the sight of him. Brooks Laich is all of these things, and thanks to a huge extension signed last summer, he won't be going anywhere anytime soon. Unfortunately, Laich's point totals were meager by his standards, failing to score 20 goals for the second straight year and finishing with fewer assists and points in any season since 2007-08. And while the box score will never tell the entire story of Laich's contributions, these trends are troubling. He did lead all forwards in shorthanded TOI (2:28 per game) and was also over two minutes per game on the power play, but neither specials teams group was terribly effective. He did shoot a pretty low percentage for the second straight season, so maybe with a little luck the scoring will return. Whether or not he can reach 20 again, we know that Laich will get big, important minutes and always give 100% effort.
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Oh Brooksie, I can't stay mad at those eyes... |
RW Joel Ward ($3.0M) - After last year's incredible scoring run in the playoffs, Joel Ward was a hot commodity on the free agent market. And McPhee answered the bell, inking Ward to a four-year, $12 million contract. His first year in DC, however, was a mixed bag of mediocrity. Early on, he seemed to skate well with Laich and Chimera on the third line, but a lack of production and greater roles for Hendricks and Beagle meant fewer minutes as the season went on. He struggled to create offense on the fourth line, and got almost no time on the power play (less than Cody Eakin!). The result was full-season career lows in almost every counting statistic. But everyone expected him to take on more responsibility in the playoffs, and you can honestly say he was a factor in both series. His
overtime game seven goal against Boston is one of my all-time favorite hockey moments. But Joel giveth, and Joel taketh away. With the chance to go up three games to two over the New York Rangers, Ward took a double minor for high sticking Carl Hagelin off a face-off in the closing seconds of game five. The Rangers scored a power play goal with seven seconds and change left, and then again in the second minute of overtime. To his credit, Ward took responsibility for the gaffe, and stood tall amidst the racially charged comments coming from Boston, New York, Washington, and around the hockey world. But now, in his age-32 season, I don't expect Ward to take any big steps forward. He is a 35-point guy at best, and a very expensive grinder at worst. In the world of the salary cap, I think this is a luxury the Capitals cannot afford.
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To paraphrase Bogey, "We'll always have Boston..." |
RW Troy Brouwer ($2.35M) - Essentially the first-round pick last year, Brouwer did well in his first season in DC. He came in with a reputation as a hard-hitting top nine guy who can net between 15 and 20 goals, and with Stanley Cup experience to boot. He was fourth among forwards in ice time, thanks to significant special teams play, and he led all Caps and was ninth in the league in hits. With the lack of production from Knuble and Ward, he saw time on the top line as well, but that's really not what his role should be, and you can't fault him for not putting up higher point totals. I feel confident Brouwer will continue to be a good, cost-effective two-way forward.
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Just to make my Chicago friends jealous, here's his little "Haters gonna hate" move. |
LW Jason Chimera ($1.75M) - The scouting report on Chimera has always been "all speed and no touch." But ol' Stonehands went and scored himself 20 goals last season, moving up to the second line and continuing that production in the playoffs. I'm not sure how sustainable an uptick in scoring from a 33-year-old is, but I recall reading a quote from him recently about how he's finally figured out that hockey speed is more than just going from point A to point B as fast as possible, it's using that speed to anticipate the puck and make opponents uncomfortable. We'll see if that life lesson results in more consistent scoring from Chimmer, but even if he can't maintain that pace, he's a good two-way winger with speed and a lot of sandpaper in his game. Like Brouwer, Chimera is not only valuable because of what he does on the ice, but his contract is incredibly affordable.
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Chimmer celebration is best celebration. (Not counting Carlson's Team USA, of course.) |
C/W Marcus Johansson ($900k two-way) - Perhaps I was expecting a bit too much from Marcus Johansson. But I kept hearing things like, "he's better than Backstrom was at his age," and, "he has a skill set like Backstrom's but superior skating ability." I may have been expecting the second coming of Peter Forsberg, or at the very least, one-half of the Sedin twins. What Johansson was able to do was take small but significant steps in his development. He improved on his rookie goal and point totals, got over two minutes per game on the power play, played a bit shorthanded, and looked more assertive skating, especially in the neutral zone. But he was also second among forwards in giveaways (ahead of Semin and behind only Ovechkin), had a pitiful 43.2 face-off percentage, and only managed one power play goal in all those minutes with the extra man. Still, he doesn't turn 22 until October, and you can bet that with more and more small steps like last season, MoJo will turn into a legitimate top six forward.
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Talent: check. Creepy facial hair: check. He may become a Sedin yet. |
C/W Matt Hendricks ($825k) - There were times, during the 2011-12 season, when I questioned why Hendricks was getting a sweater every night. He's too small to be a true enforcer. He doesn't draw penalties in a Sean Avery, pest-like way. His scoring was way down from his first year in DC. Then my fiancée and I watched
24/7 on DVD, and I was reminded of the awesome. All of it. All of the awesome. And then, almost in response to my renewed faith, we met the Paralyzer. Hendricks' shootout move is a thing of beauty, and as long as commissioner Gary Bettman's "ties are for dorkwads" policy holds, Hendy will have more value than your typical fourth-line grinder. You have to admire Hendricks for his perseverance, sticking around in the league by doing all the little things that endear him to his coaching staff, and it is that attitude and style of play that will make him a valuable defensive forward for the immediate future.
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I will never tire of this. |
Defensemen
Roman Hamrlík ($3.5M) - Hamrlik was expected to be paired with Mike Green last season, and through the first seven games, things looked pretty good for Hamr. (Then again, things looked good for everyone through the first seven games.) When Green went down, the old man seemed out to sea at times last year, and he struggled through a pretty poor first half. Caps fans were especially frustrated when his inability to be effectively paired with any of the other vets led to the break up of Carlson and Alzner for a stretch. But once Hunter had his system fully in place, Hamr was back to his old self, mixing in a touch of snarl to go with his positionally sound defense. And he's reliable, staying healthy and providing a solid if unspectacular performance across the board. The Caps will be fine with another season of Hamrlik's services as the young blueliners on Washington's AHL affiliabe, the Hershey Bears, continue to develop.
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A man with a beard this fine can play for my hockey team any day. |
Tom Poti ($2.875M) - Any groin injury sounds painful. A groin injury that keeps you out of commission since January 2011, however, sounds God-awful. Poti's career is likely over, as he spent the entire 2011-12 season on long-term injured reserve. His salary won't count against the cap, and you can bet that Caps brass isn't counting on Poti to be a part of their blueline corps next season. It's a shame, because Poti was certainly a serviceable puck mover and he's a hell of a nice guy. Get well soon, Tom.
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You might want to hang on to some of your chips there, bud. |
Jeff Schultz ($2.75M) - Remember when Jeff Schultz had a +50 rating in a season? Oh, memories... I can't tell if Sarge's development has hit a plateau, or just fallen off a cliff, but he's no longer effective with top minutes or on the penalty kill, getting less ice time than Carlson, Alzner, Hamrlik, and even Wideman while a man down. At 6'6" and 220 pounds, one might think at first glance that Schultz is a bruiser. But he tends to shy away from the rough stuff, instead relying on his below average skating ability and awareness to play defense. The results aren't pretty -- Schultz had a career low TOI, was a minus player for the first time, and was scratched in the playoffs for Erskine. Firmly planted in Hunter's doghouse, it's unclear what Schultz's role will be now that Oates is in town. But the signing of Jack Hillen could signal that Schultz's days in DC are numbered.
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Yes, Jeff, I will continue to hate. |
John Erskine ($1.5M) - Let's get one thing straight -- I know John Erskine isn't a terribly good defenseman. He moves slow, he thinks slow, he's prone to making his team shorthanded, and he's pretty ineffective even against bad competition. But I love John Erskine. As a seventh defenseman, you could do worse than a guy who does
this. Unfortunately, that was from two seasons ago, as Erskine's mere 28 games played only allowed him to drop the gloves three times last season. He did
hand Arron Asham his own ass on a platter though, which is always good. When he was in the lineup, Big John only got 12 minutes a night, 30 seconds per game shorthanded, and didn't exactly rack up the points or blocked shots. How Oates deploys Erskine will be interesting, and if he's mostly a scratch but gets the call for Flyers and Penguins games, so much the better.
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<3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 |
Karl Alzner ($1.285M) - Last season was the first for Alzner after he signed a new contract covering two of his restricted years. Alzner's agent lamented that his RFA client had no bargaining power to force Washington to do anything other than qualify him, so he accepted a modest raise to avoid arbitration or risk an offer sheet from another team. But given that Alzner performed incredibly well all year, the deal looks like an absolute steal for the Caps. JP stated
here that when taking into account quality of competition, the only players to allow fewer five-on-five goals against were Ryan McDonagh and Nicklas Lidstrom. Not bad company. Alzner gets physical without taking penalties, has been healthy for two straight seasons, and he has an obvious chemistry with Carlson. In fact, the young duo might give older Caps fans visions of Larry Murphy and Scott Stevens. He'll be a restricted free agent again next summer, and it will definitely be in McPhee's best interests to lock him up post-haste.
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I will cry like Milan Lucic if Alzner leaves the Caps. |
Goaltenders
Michal Neuvirth ($1.15M) - Competition is always good for young goaltenders. Except when it isn't. During Semyon Varlamov's tenure in DC, he and Neuvirth pushed each other to succeed, and balancing playing time wasn't a big issue. With Varly off to Denver and Vokoun signed, many assumed Neuvirth had to take a back seat. But neither Vokoun nor Neuvirth was ever made into a consistent #1, and some of Neuvy's starts were met with a lot of scrutiny, notably on opening night and a select few games in Sunrise, Vokoun's old stomping grounds. To make matters worse, Neuvirth battled injuries late in the season, and even when Vokoun was unable to suit up due to his own issues, they both had to watch Holtby become to toast of the NHL in the postseason. Moving forward, Neuvirth has his work cut out for him if he's going to supplant Holtby as the hot kid in town after a sub-par season that saw his save percentage flirt with dropping below .900 and a 13-13-5 record. On the plus side, the ladies think he's a cutie pie.
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Can't. Unsee. |
-- Restricted Free Agents -- (2011-12 salary cap number)
D Mike Green ($5.25M) - It seems like a lifetime ago now that Mike Green was a two-time Norris Trophy finalist. The last two seasons have been very trying for Green, dealing with shoulder, ankle, and groin injuries, but more importantly attempting to recover from post-concussion syndrome after a Brooks Orpik slapshot and an elbow from Derek Stepan rattled him in two separate games in February 2011. Green's offensive production was downright Erskinian, notching only 3G 4A in 32 games. Whether that was more a product of his lack of physical health, or Hunter's defensive system, we can only speculate. But his defensive game has steadily improved while showing flashes of his old self, most notably in a game four playoff win against the Rangers when he blasted a power play goal from the right point. With good health and a new bench boss, Green could begin to regain his offensive form. McPhee is betting that he will, inking Green to a three-year, $18.25 million contract.
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$18 million buys a lot of Vespas. |
D John Carlson ($846k) - A top prospect who performed well in his rookie year and with a sparkling resumé in international competition, expectations for John Carlson were skyrocketing entering last season. Already touted as the best two-way defenseman on the Caps, he and Alzner were tasked with the toughest defensive minutes on the team from the get-go. Carlson started out strong, with good numbers across the board through December, but once the calendar flipped to 2012, Carlson's play started to slide. He had a -20 rating in his final 45 games of the regular season, and many wondered what kind of product he would bring to the playoffs. But once there, he flourished defensively, and even chipped in 5 points in 14 games. After the season, Carlson was rumored to be a target for offer sheets, especially after Philadelphia's failed bid to land Shea Weber from Nashville. McPhee was able to sweat it out and remain patient, as is his custom, and eventually signed Carlson to a six-year, $23.8 million deal that should make both Carlson and Caps fans very, very happy.
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He may not be the most handsome Cap, but he's got style. |
C/W Mathieu Perreault ($525k) - After two years of bouncing between Hershey and Washington, Perreault was a Cap for the entire season. He posted career best marks in every major statistic, even finding himself on the top line for short spurts while Backstrom was out. Unfortunately, Perreault was streaky in the scoring department, getting points in bunches then disappearing for weeks at a time. However, there was a stretch from January to March where he was consistently getting 15-plus minutes per game, creating chances and seemingly earning the confidence of the coaching staff. But come playoff time, Perreault only dressed for the first four games against Boston, including a mere 4:23 TOI in game three, and was later scratched in favor of Knuble. Still, it was a good year for Matty P, and his performance was rewarded with a new two-year, $2.1 million contract that will cover two more of his restricted years. He figures to be a scoring threat somewhere among the bottom nine again next season.
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Pretty sure Ovie is checking out Matty P's ass in this pic. |
C Jay Beagle ($513k) - Like Perreault, it was a bit of a surprise that Beagle was with the Capitals all season. A defensive forward in every sense of the word, Snoopy was injured in the team's third game during an ill-advised fight with Arron Asham, and was eased back into the lineup after suffering from post-concussion symptoms. Once at full strength, he became one of Hunter's favorite forwards to use in almost every even-strength and shorthanded situation, famously getting more minutes in some playoff games than Ovechkin, and including a whopping 35:04 TOI in the triple-overtime game three against the Rangers. McPhee, obviously impressed with his defensive abilities, extended Beagle for three more years by signing him to a $2.7 million contract. Despite the vote of confidence from the organization and the relative bargain of a contract paying out less than $1 million annually, Beags ended up with a paltry 4G 1A in 41 regular season games. If he wants to enjoy a long career, even fourth liners need to chip in a little more offense than that.
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Throw a mullet on him, and Beags is the "Safety Not Guaranteed" guy. (The meme, not the movie.) |
-- Unrestriced Free Agents -- (2011-12 salary cap number)
RW Alexander Semin ($6.7M) - Love him or hate him, Alex Semin has been a fixture of the DC hockey scene since he was picked 13th overall in 2002. That's a decade of reading about, watching, and cursing at the goofy, rubber-faced kid with the wicked wrist shot and a penchant for offensive zone stick penalties. The good times with Sasha were very good, especially his 2009-10 campaign that saw him reach 40 goals in the height of the Boudreau era. But the bad times... oh man... He was a perennial playoff specter and eventual spectator (specterator?) and was continually singled out by the North American media for small sample size woes and not doing interviews in English. There's really nothing I can say about Sasha that RMNB hasn't
already said multiple times, but my personal feelings on him are simply this -- there aren't many people in the world capable of what Semin can do on a sheet of ice, and the cons to having him on your hockey team are mostly assumptions and white noise. That said, it seemed like McPhee had just about enough of Semin after last season, and he never publicly mentioned wanting to bring him back. After almost a month on the free agent market, and the rumors of mega-deals from the KHL had died down, Semin finally signed a one-year, $7 million contract with division rival Carolina. Suddenly I am very scared of Good Sasha and an army of Staal clones throttling the Caps on the regular.
D Dennis Wideman ($3.938M) - Wides' season was a lot like the first line of Charles Dickens' classic novel,
A Tale of Two Cities. Well, it would have been had it read, "It was the worst of times, it was the worster of times." Wideman racked up some decent point totals over the first half of the season, chipping in on the power play after Green's injury and even managing to play some defense along the way. But even so, his attendance at the All-Star Game was suspect, considering the NHL has to have twelve defensemen better than Wides, and the Capitals definitely have better representatives, despite the onset of injury and suspension. After his trip to Ottawa, however, Wideman's game most closely resembled the love child of a turnstile and a sieve. By the start of the playoffs, Wideman was such a liability that most fans were clamoring for him to be slotted behind Erskine, Schultz, and Orlov on the depth chart. Needless to say, those around DC didn't think Wideman would be sticking around too long after his contract expired. To my utter delight, he was shipped out before that even happened, landing in Calgary in exchange for prospect Jordan Henry (now an unrestricted free agent) and a fifth-round pick in 2013. The Flames promptly signed Wides to a five-year, $26.5 million contract. Have fun with that, Calgarians.
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"Hey man, I used to be an All-Star." "...me too, man. Me too." |
RW Mike Knuble ($2.0M) - After sixteen seasons in the NHL, Kanoobs might be done. If so, it was an inauspicious end to Mike Knuble's great career. Although he was able to crack the lineup consistently, minutes were scarce. Skating with unskilled linemates and with the reduced role, Knuble posted his worst per-game statistical season since 2000-01. On the one hand, his skill set never set the world on fire, and when a slow power forward starts to lose what little speed he has, he's in trouble. On the other hand, I always felt he deserved better from Hunter. A little time among the top six and with the power play goes a long way. Still looking for work into the lockout, I sure hope the next time I see Knuble in an NHL sweater isn't an alumni game.
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Good night, sweet prince. |
G Tomas Vokoun ($1.5M) - Many assumed Vokoun's tenure in Washington would be short-lived when the goaltender signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract. And after Holtby stood on his head all postseason long, it was pretty much a given that the Vokeswagon would be leaving DC. Like Cristobal Huet and Jose Theodore before him, Vokoun never really lived up to the #1 veteran goalie billing in DC. But for that contract, he certainly earned his paycheck, clocking in at his established career levels for goals against and save percentage. His 25-17-2 record is more of a statement on the team in front of him, and their lack of offensive prowess, than anything he did between the pipes. In the interest of getting something for nothing, McPhee dealt Vokoun's negotiating rights to Pittsburgh for their seventh round pick. Vokoun should see around 35 starts backing up Marc-Andre Fleury after signing a two-year, $4 million contract. No offense, Tomas, but I do not wish you the best.
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Does it come in black and gold? |
C Jeff Halpern ($825k) - It was a nice homecoming for Halpern, the Maryland native, former Little Cap, and former captain. Unfortunately the story on the ice wasn't as warm and fuzzy, as Halpern scuffled a bit, tying his career low in points. But he was as reliable as ever defensively and in the faceoff dot, and even though the Caps didn't appear interested in an extension, Halpy's career has a little more life left. The New York Rangers, looking for some cost-effective help on the fourth line, signed Halpern to a one-year, $700k contract.
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D'AAAWWWWWWW |
C/W Keith Aucoin ($512k two-way) - Undersized and unnoticed out of tiny Norwich University in Vermont, Aucoin has turned his offensive creativity into a nifty career as an AHL playmaker. In his past six seasons in that league, he's averaged more than a point per game at every stop. And though he's bounced around a lot and produced in the minors, he's never found a consistent role in the NHL. Aucoin managed to find his way into Hunter's good graces last season, likely on account of his coachability, maturity, and compete level. Unexpectedly, he was able to sneak in some power play time and even suited up for all fourteen playoff games. But his point totals remained expectedly pedestrian. Still in search of his first one-way contract, Aucoin settled for a one-year, two-way deal with Toronto for $650,000. Due to his diminutive size, I figured he'd sign with the other Canadian club in the Northeast Division, but I still wish him well.
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At least someone in the Maple Leafs organization will have cup-raising experience. |
-- NHL Prospects -- (2012-13 contract status)
Forwards
RW Evgeny Kuznetsov (unsigned) - Hockey's Future recently had Kuznetsov ranked at the #7 prospect in all of hockey. So why did he fall to the 26th pick in the 2010 draft?
This. Kuzya will play two more years in Russia, and some doubt if he'll ever make the jump to the NHL. So I'll save the accolades for another time. Just know that, even among the NHL's elite, he has the talent to be a top-line player.
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The new enigma. |
C/W Cody Eakin ($638k two-way) - The Caps' most notable ginger, Eakin had a strong training camp and seemed to fit well into Boudreau's system. With his junior career over, some thought he could break camp with the big club at 20 years old, but he was sent to Hershey for a bit more seasoning. Eakin played well and was called up in short order by Boudreau, but it was the defensive minded Hunter who gave Eakin a regular stream of games between November and January. Unfortunately, he only skated just over 9 minutes a night, producing 4G 4A in 30 games with the Caps. He dressed for just one NHL game after February 1st, and his only playoff action was in Hershey. Traded to the Dallas Stars in the deal that brought Mike Ribeiro to DC, Eakin will be counted upon for a much greater impact in Big D. How does he project with regular NHL minutes? Last year, Japers' Rink poster Derek Zona
thought his game looks a bit like Max Talbot's.
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Does reddish-orange go with green and black? |
LW Stanislav Galiev ($661k two-way) - Does Galiev get a pass for being Russian because he played his junior hockey in Canada? Stas was an integral part of the Saint John Sea Dogs, helping them to a Memorial Cup win last year and back-to-back Presidents' Cups the past two years in the QMJHL. Galiev missed a significant portion of the year with a wrist injury, but his points per game was right on pace with his Q career averages. During this year's postseason run, he took his game to another level, scoring 16G 18A in 17 playoff games. With his juniors eligibility now over, Galiev will likely begin the season in Hershey. But with Semin and Knuble gone, there is suddenly a need for scoring wingers on the big club. The Caps aren't shy about putting 20-year-olds in the NHL, as was the case with Eakin and Orlov, Johansson the season before, and Carlson, Alzner, Neuvirth, Backstrom, Schultz, Ovechkin, Green, Semyon Varlamov, and Eric Fehr all getting playing time in their age-20 season since the (previous) lockout. If he succeeds in Hershey, it might not be long before Galiev joins their ranks and gets the call.
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More Cameron Fry or Julian Casablancas? Either way, he looks 12. |
C/W Caleb Herbert (unsigned) - Herbert, a fifth-round pick last year, just completed his freshman year at Minnesota Duluth. He finished fourth on the team in points, scoring 14G 19A in 41 games, showcasing a robust offensive game as a playmaker. At 5'10" and 185 pounds, and with limited experience, he's not close to being NHL ready, but the Caps are content to let him continue to grow during his collegiate career. A decision on signing Herbert won't be necessary until he ends his student-athlete status, so unless he feels like leaving school early, it will be a few more years before he factors into the Caps' gameplan. Corey Pronman, my prospect guru, has him ranked as the Caps' fourth best, ahead of Braden Holtby and behind only Kuzya, Galiev, and top pick Filip Forsberg. He describes a robust offensive game, with smooth skating ability, a quick first step, good hands, and improving vision and playmaking ability. Despite his size, he projects as a second-line winger.
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Herbert has net presence? Are we sure he's a Caps prospect? |
C Zach Hamill ($700k two-way) - Hamill was acquired from Boston for the rights to AHL scorer Chris Bourque. While this is a nice homecoming for Ray's son, what are the Caps really getting in return? A former 8th overall pick in 2007, Hamill's point totals with the Providence Bruins has been trending downward over the last three seasons. The Caps are hoping that this is a classic case of change of scenery helping to resurrect a career, but expectations about his ceiling have to be tempered. No longer counted upon to shoulder the offensive load, Hamill's game has evolved into a solid two-way effort in the AHL, but he will likely spend all season in Hershey if he can't regain his scoring touch.
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"Buh? Hamill go to Hershey? Hamill like chocolate! Chocolate tasty!" |
RW Garrett Mitchell ($575K two-way) - Mitchell is something of a tweener. He plays a physical game, but is a bit undersized. He gets into the rough areas of the ice, but isn't a power forward. Mitchell racked up a healthy amount of points and penalty minutes during his time in the WHL, and in his first year in the pros he spent nearly the entire season in Hershey. Not bad for a sixth-round pick. But he's been a minus player at every stop, and without gaudy scoring totals or a bigger frame, he'll have to work that much harder before he gets the call to the bigs. Think a younger, pre-Paralyzer Hendricks.
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Here's Mitchell last year at dev camp, endearing himself to his teammates by allowing them to punch him. |
C Mattias Sjogren ($900k two-way) - Signed as an undrafted free agent last summer, word out of the Caps front office was Sjogren had a legitimate shot at making the NHL right away. His size and physicality would translate well as a fourth-line center, and his offensive game showed promise. But after Jeff Halpern was signed to fill that role a month later, Sjogren was shipped to Hershey, where he struggled. In 19 games there, he managed 2G 3A, only 4 PIMs, and a -6 rating before eventually returning to Sweden for the rest of the regular season. Called up during the Caps' playoff run as one of the practice "black aces," Sjogren seemed happy for the opportunity to return to DC, as Stephen Whyno reported
here. Whether or not Sjogren will commit to staying in the system is anyone's guess, but with the emergence of Beagle and a good season from Hendricks, Sjogren has his work cut out for him to make the Caps fourth line.
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Oates : Ray Liotta :: Sjogren : Christopher Reeve |
Defensemen
Dmitry Orlov ($900k two-way) - The first of two Caps "prospects" to see considerable NHL playing time, Orlov suited up for 60 (!) games with Washington last season. He wasn't slacking off either, skating almost 17 minutes per game, mostly at even strength, being a plus player, staying out of the penalty box, and chipping in 3 goals and 16 assists. Not bad for a 20-year-old, but at 6'0" and over 200 pounds, Orlov is no kid. However, once the playoffs rolled around, he was treated like one, wearing a suit instead of an NHL sweater while Wideman, Schultz, and Erskine struggled mightily. Orlov didn't get much power play time, as Hunter preferred Green, Wideman, and Carlson as the more experienced point men opposite Ovechkin. But if Oates moves Ovie to the circle or the slot, that could open up some opportunity for Orlov. The best is yet to come, and while his ceiling might not be as high as Carlson's, it isn't far off.
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"All I do is ask Dale if I can play in playoffs! Dale punch me in face!" |
Cameron Schilling ($1.775M two-way) - Another undrafted free agent signing, Schilling finished up his college career at Miami of Ohio with some modest offensive numbers, so it's easy to see why he was a bit under the radar. The scouting report tells of a developing two-way game, and his 6'2", 197-pound frame is indicative of a legitimate NHL prospect once he fills out a bit. Another thing about Schilling that is NHL-ready is his cap hit, which is quite large for a prospect untested outside of the collegiate ranks. Thankfully, most of that is tied up in performance bonuses, so Leonsis likely won't be writing those checks anytime soon. There are eight defensemen on one-way contracts, and that doesn't include Orlov, so unless Schilling shocks the world in training camp he will be ticketed for Hershey.
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More strawberry than pure ginger, but with Eakin gone, we'll take it. |
Patrick Wey (unsigned) - Wey is another college prospect with a reputation for a solid two-way game. Unfortunately he's been sidelined with several minor injuries throughout his career, and although he's played at least 27 games all three years at Boston College, he has never been able to put up impressive point totals. Wey attended development camp for the third straight summer, so the organization clearly wants to keep an eye on his game. After next season, it should be interesting to see where he fits on the depth chart, although most signs point to Hershey.
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Team USA? Number 11? I like where this is going. |
Kevin Marshall ($525k two-way) -A former second-round pick and Flyers farmhand, Marshall was traded to the Caps for AHL scorer Matt Ford in February. Marshall has some upside as a defensive defenseman and enforcer in a pinch, but has only managed to find his way into 10 NHL games since turning pro in 2009. One wouldn't think Marshall is being considered for a role with the Caps, especially after the Jack Hillen signing. But as long as Erskine is on the roster, there's always hope.
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Marshall does offer a swarthiness the Caps have lacked in the past. |
Tomas Kundratek ($817k two-way) - Kundratek is another prospect with good size, and his offensive game is centered around a hard shot. He showcased that skill by netting 12 goals in 55 games for Hershey last year, a personal best at any competitive level. He even managed to make his way onto the Caps for five games in January, skating around ten minutes a night and treading water pretty well until everyone else was healthy. He'll be 23 in December, and although his ceiling isn't that high, there are worse options for an extra defenseman on an NHL club.
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Hope you got to keep the sweater, Tomas. |
Samuel Carrier (unsigned) - Carrier was an offensive defenseman on a few bad teams in junior hockey, putting up good point totals but overlooked in the early rounds of the draft. The Caps snagged him in the sixth round in 2010, and while Carrier continued to toil away on his second and eventually third QMJHL team, he remained unsigned. The Caps let the window on retaining his rights expire, and he was eligible for the 2012 draft, where he went unselected. An unrestricted free agent, it will be interesting to see if any North American pro clubs take a flyer on his talents, as 43G 127A in 264 games (including playoffs) from the blueline is nothing to sneeze at.
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Hey kid, take your creepy Crosby-smile somewhere else. |
Brett Flemming ($558k two-way) - With a reputation as a solid, two-way defenseman, Flemming posted an eye-popping +60 rating in the OHL in 2010-11, finishing his four-year career there with very good statistics on the blue line. A fifth-round pick in 2009, he has decent height but will need to bulk up to stay in the higher levels of pro hockey. Flemming split time between Hershey and the ECHL's South Carolina Stingrays last season, where his production dropped off a bit. He should be in the mix for a spot in Hershey again next season, and if he fails that, he'll play for the Caps' new ECHL affiliate, the Reading Royals.
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I propose we nickname Flemming "Rocket Man," because he always looks high as a kite. |
Goaltenders
Braden Holtby ($638k two-way) - It seems entirely unfair to list Holtby among Caps "prospects," but I go by Hockey's Future lists, and there he sits. Also, The Goalie Guild, my source for all things related to netminding prospects, has him
ranked #2 overall behind Florida's Jacob Markstrom. Holtby has spent parts of the last two seasons in Washington, posting sparkling goals against and save percentage numbers. But when relegated to Hershey, Holtby has scuffled. Are his problems mental, and he just requires a big stage to thrive, as he did in this year's playoffs? Or are his minor league numbers a better indicator of his true talent? Either way, he needs to show the ability to succeed as a pro over an 82-game schedule. But once he does, the sky's the limit. Note: My fiancée has this really cute way of saying, "Hold me, Holtby!" when we're watching hockey and snuggling on the couch. I just wanted you to know that.
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In total control, Holtby is the Pai Mei of goalies. |
Philipp Grubauer ($607k two-way) - After an up-and-down juniors career, Grubauer saw a healthy amount of games in his pro debut with the South Carolina Stingrays. He responded fabulously -- a 23-13-5 record supported by a 2.22 GAA and .918 save percentage. With Holtby likely graduating the the Caps full-time, Grubauer figures to split starts in Hershey with Dany Sabourin next season. One thing holding him back might be the wrist injury he suffered at the end of last season, and his no-show at development camp may indicate he needs a little more time to heal. If he does land in Hershey, how he responds to moving up two levels in two years should go a long way toward projecting his career path. Philipp, as the Caps' most prominent German prospect, I just want to tell you good luck, we're all counting on you.
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Deutschland über alles! |
Steffen Soberg (unsigned) - Just 19 years old, Soberg has been thrown to the wolves early in his career, playing 44 games in Norway's top pro league over the last two seasons. In all fairness, he was selected by the Swift Current Broncos in Canada's juniors draft, so he could have played against competition his own age, but decided to return home to Norway. Soberg's numbers aren't terribly good, and he is undersized for an NHL goaltender, but he has quick reflexes, decent instincts, and a big glove hand. This year's development camp will be his second, as the Caps seem content to let him continue his career in Europe while still remaining on their radar.
Brandon Anderson ($533k two-way) - An undrafted free agent, Anderson was signed in 2010 by Washington after strong performances as an invitee to rookie and development camps that year. He returned to the WHL, where his numbers have been very pedestrian, but the Caps have seen enough growth in both his game and his body to invite him back to camp this year. Now 20 years old, Anderson will likely report to Reading, where he'll get his first taste of pro competition in the ECHL.
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Hello, Mr. Anderson. |
-- The Draft --
Over the previous eight drafts, McPhee has used almost every Caps first-round pick to take either a European forward or a North American defenseman, the lone exception being the Semyon Varlamov pick in 2006. That crop has seen its share of hits (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Carlson, Alzner), misses (Schultz, Anton Gustafsson, Sasha Pokulok, Joe Finley), and two the jury is still out on (Johansson, Kuznetsov). With two early picks in this year's first round, it was interesting to see McPhee first follow tradition with a European forward, then break from it and select a North American forward, and a physically imposing one at that.
All 2012 draftees attended this year's development camp. And now, on to the picks:
C/RW Filip Forsberg (1.11, 11th overall) - NHL Central Scouting ranked Forsberg as the top European skater in this year's draft class. While that's a technicality due to Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko being listed as North American skaters after playing Canadian junior hockey, it shouldn't detract from Forsberg's considerable talents. Projected as a top-five pick, he fell to Washington at #11 due to a run on defensemen early in the draft. A capable center but more comfortable at right wing, Forsberg is a complete, two-way player. His offensive game is still evolving, but the Caps seem to know they have something special, signing Forsberg to his entry-level contract during development camp. The deal is worth over $2.7 million over three years at the NHL level, which won't begin until he plays stateside, beginning in 2013-14 at the earliest. It should also be noted that this was the pick the Caps received from Colorado in the Varlamov deal. Thanks, Greg Sherman!
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He looks like a right-handed Johansson. Do want. |
RW Tom Wilson (1.16, 16th overall) - A raw power forward prospect, opinions varied greatly on Wilson's potential before the draft. Corey Pronman described obvious physical gifts (he's listed at 6'4") but also cautioned that his offensive skill is lacking, and it may never develop. As such, he
ranked him as the 76th prospect in this year's draft. But Central Scouting had him ranked as the 15th North American skater. There's an old adage that says you can't get tougher as a team until you draft tougher, and the Caps certainly did that by selection Wilson. In 49 OHL games last year, he had 141 PIMs to go along with 9G 18A on the season. Wilson signed an entry-level deal almost identical to Forsberg's, with a little less in the way of performance bonuses and a friendlier cap hit. He'll likely return to juniors next season, and with a larger role on his Plymouth Whalers, he could begin to showcase a little more offense.
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:-D |
C/LW Chandler Stephenson (3.16, 77th overall) - Stephenson possesses good offensive instincts, and as such was ranked 62nd overall by Pronman and 33rd among North American skaters by Central Scouting. He lacks ideal size, however, listed at 5'11" and 190 pounds. Last season was his second with the WHL's Regina Pats, where he scored 22G 20A in 55 games and was fourth on the team in points. With two more seasons of junior eligibility left, there's no sense in rushing to judgment on Stephenson, and it should be more of the same for him in Regina come October.
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Could his jersey be any whiter? (Yes, it's 2012 and I made a Chandler Bing joke.) |
C Thomas Di Pauli (4.9, 100th overall) - Di Pauli joined the USA National Team Development Program in 2010 and has spent the past two seasons playing for their junior teams in Ann Arbor, Michigan. He's never put up tons of points, but his game is about energy and versatility, as he's played at all three forward positions. Right now he projects to be a bottom-six defensive forward with average goal scoring for that role, but since Di Pauli has committed to Notre Dame, the Capitals will likely have three or four years to wait and see if he can make some strides in his skill level and offensive awareness.
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Eyes on the prize, kid. It's a long road to the NHL. |
RW Austin Wuthrich (4.16, 107th overall) - Wuthrich, who will play with Di Pauli at Notre Dame in the fall, just completed his freshman season in South Bend. Passed over in last year's draft, he improved his prospect status by getting increased ice time as the season went on, scoring 7G 10A in 36 games. More of a physical presence at 6'2", he projects as a grinder. As with all college prospects, the Caps can play the draft-and-follow game before signing him, although he's a year older and closer to ending his eligibility than most.
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I love the gold helmets, on the ice or the gridiron. |
D Connor Carrick (5.16, 137th overall) - After five straight forwards, the Caps finally took a D-man in Carrick, another USA National Team Development Program product. Originally a University of Michigan commit, Carrick changed his mind after the NHL draft, instead opting to play with the Plymouth Whalers in Canada's OHL (coincidentally, Tom Wilson's junior team). In the NTDP, he saw time on the blueline behind top prospects Jacob Trouba (9th overall pick by Winnipeg) and Seth Jones (draft eligible next year) while producing solid if unspectacular results. His 1G 4A in 21 games last season won't get anyone too excited, but seeing a limited role behind his more talented teammates could be a recurring theme, as he projects to be a bottom-pair or seventh defenseman in the NHL.
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Press conferences for fifth-round picks? The NHL is awesome. |
RW Riley Barber (6.16, 167th overall) - Yet another player from the USA NTDP (real original, GMGM), Barber will attend Miami of Ohio in the fall. A gritty, physical forward, Barber picked up 5G 6A and 59 PIMs in 24 games last season. His growth physically may be just as important as the development of his skills, as he presently lacks the size of an NHL enforcer.
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Here's Barber utilizing his greatest assets. |
D Christian Djoos (7.14, 195th overall) - McPhee must have tired of his new favorite well, the US junior ranks, and went back to one of his old favorite wells, Sweden. Djoos is, as Hockey's Future put it, "severely undersized" at 5'11" and 158 pounds. But what he lacks in bulk, he makes up for in skating ability, and Central Scouting had him ranked 18th among European skaters. On his Swedish teams, he's known for his two-way game, playing defensive positions and angles well while knowing when to join the rush. If signed, it will be interesting to see how his game translates to the smaller ice sheet and physical nature of the North American game.
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Fact: I had this haircut in middle school. |
D Jaynen Rissling (7.16, 197th overall) - At 6'4" and 220 pounds, Rissling is a mountain of a man among the junior ranks. He likes the rough stuff too, getting into 10 fights in 55 games last season with the WHL's Calgary Hitmen. But there's more to his game than pugilism -- he chipped in 5G 18A as well. It will be interesting to see if he can bring both his zone coverage and his offense with him to the professional levels.
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pew pew pew |
G Sergei Kostenko (7.22, 203rd overall) - After selecting six forwards and three defensemen, McPhee decided to round out the bunch with a goaltender. And just so people didn't think he wasn't actually George McPhee, he chose a Russian. Kostenko was passed over in the draft the last two years, but has shown enough promise to warrant the selection. Although his numbers in Russia's junior league are pedestrian, he flourished in the playoffs with a .918 save percentage and 2.11 GAA in seven postseason games. He's also had international experience, going to the World Junior Championship as Russia's backup goalie, and playing three games in the Under-18 tournament two years ago. Also, Kostenko is friends with Dmitry Orlov, as the two have a history of playing on the same teams together, most recently with Novokuznetsk two years ago. The evaluators saw enough of his talents at development camp to sign him to a two-way, AHL-level contract, which means he will likely play for Reading next season with a chance to get called up to Hershey. This allows him to stay in the system while not taking up space on the Caps' 50-man roster.
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Who knew Kostenko is a Tom Petty fan? |
-- Off-season Acquisitions -- (2012-13 salary cap number)
C Mike Ribeiro ($5.0M) - After years of free agent projects and underachieving youngsters, McPhee may finally have his bona fide second-line center. He traded Cody Eakin and a second-round pick to the Dallas Stars to fill the biggest team need in recent years, and hopefully it works out better than Michael Nylander or Brendan Morrison. Ribeiro, a free agent after next season, was pressed into top-line duty after Brad Richards signed with the New York Rangers, and he led all Dallas forwards in TOI. While he didn't put up gaudy offensive numbers, his per-game averages were right in line with his career norms. Ribiero figures to slot in behind Backstrom on the depth chart, allowing players like Johansson, Laich, and Perreault to move between being top-six wings and centering on the bottom six. If he meshes well in the locker room, I'm guessing it won't be long before McPhee talks extension.
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aww_yea.jpg |
RW Joey Crabb ($950k) - A former seventh-round pick, Crabb has bounced around the league (Washington will be his fifth NHL organization) as an extra forward and AHL scorer. He's not your typical fourth-line grinder -- Crabb's game is offense, and he's coming off a pretty good 11G 15A season, spending all but nine Marlies games with the Maple Leafs. Seeing as how Washington has used their third line in a shutdown role, more scoring from the fourth line would be a welcome addition. Crabb's deal is one-way, meaning if he's optioned to or recalled from Hershey he'll have to clear waivers, so it seems McPhee expects him to be on the Caps all season. Skating with another offensive guy like Perreault could yield some unexpectedly good results.
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V . v . V (That's supposed to look like a crab, I guess.) |
D Jack Hillen ($650k) - Hillen, a Colorado College product, went undrafted but was signed by and played big minutes for the New York Islanders. As such, he's learned on the job while showcasing good skating ability, puck retrieval, and passing exiting the zone. With reduced ice time behind the big guns last year in Nashville, he played well, and figures to get a reprise of that role in DC. The scouting report reads that his zone coverage isn't great, and he's best paired with a "big thumper." Given Schultz's allergy to physicality and Erskine's lack of mobility, I'm not sure anyone on the Caps fits that bill, however.
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Wait, this isn't the Nashville defenseman everyone wanted? |
LW Wojtek Wolski ($600k) - Wolski was a first-round pick by the Colorado Avalanche in 2004, the same year the Caps had three picks in that round and took Ovechkin, Schultz, and Green. His career started with a bang -- he opened the 2005-06 season with the Avs for nine games, returning to juniors for the remainder of the season before being recalled for eight playoff games, scoring 10 points in all, in his age-19 season no less. The following season, he enjoyed a breakout performance with 22G 28A, and went on to nice career totals with Colorado. After he was traded to Phoenix in 2010, however, he's been unable to stay healthy or effective. The Caps will be Wolski's fourth franchise since his halcyon Avs days, and his bargain basement one-year contract indicates that the opportunity to play on a skilled team while getting top-six minutes might have been an important factor in his decision. If he's able to stay in the lineup, Wolski will give the team another skilled left winger after Ovechkin, allowing Chimera to return to his familiar third-line role. If not, hey, it's not my six hundred large.
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PROTIP: It's pronounced VOY-tek VOLL-ski. |
-- Projected Depth Chart --
With a new coach in town, it seems folly to project any line combinations during the long, hockey-less summer. But the depth chart is starting to take shape:
C: Backstrom, Ribeiro, Laich, Beagle, Sjogren, Hamill
LW: Ovechkin, Wolski, Chimera, Hendricks, Perreault, Galiev
RW: Johansson, Brouwer, Ward, Crabb
D: Carlson, Alzner, Green, Hamrlik, Orlov, Schultz, Hillen, Erskine
G: Holtby, Neuvirth, Sabourin, Grubauer
Obviously those with experience at both center and wing, especially Laich, Johansson, Perreault, and Hendricks, could move up or down a bit. But that's generally the way things look to shake out as of right now. There aren't very many free agents remaining who can slot in ahead of most of these guys, and McPhee seems reluctant to open up the purse strings for someone who would.
I have a few observations. First, the team is desperately lacking at right wing, which makes the failure to re-sign Semin all the more devastating. And even though Ribeiro should be able to replace Semin's scoring, it remains to be seen if he will be as effective with the Caps power play. Semin thrived along the left boards, and, other than Ovechkin, there are no players on the roster with his offensive prowess and a right-handed shot. It will be interesting to see if Oates keeps Ovie at left wing, and at the power play point. I think there's nothing Oates wouldn't try to get this team scoring goals in bunches again.
I also think that Ovechkin may be on the second line. I won't make any predictions as to specific line combinations, but I think Ovie will be with Ribeiro at even strength, and that line would probably see less ice time than Backstrom's line. Splitting up Ovie and Bäckis is something the last two coaches toyed with at times, and I feel making the change permanent is long overdue. Late in games, most coaches juggle lines to fit certain situations anyway, and they'd obviously both be on the top power play unit, so it's not like they'd never see each other.
Looking at the personnel, the question might be, "What does this team do exceptionally well?" The answer, for me, is play defense. Such a stark contrast from 2009-10, no? But Carlson, Alzner, Green, and Hamrlik make up such a solid top four, with Orlov waiting in the wings. Add in the upside of Holtby and Neuvirth between the pipes, along with defensive-minded forwards like Laich, Chimera, Brouwer, Beagle, and Hendricks, and this team figures to be pretty stingy in 2012-13. One of their main problems allowing goals came a man down (they ranked 21st last season) so to make the jump to an elite defensive team, they will need to shore up their penalty killing. The development of Orlov, as well as Johansson's two-way game, could be crucial to the team's defense.
As for offense, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty. First of all, there is the hope that Green stays healthy and rediscovers his scoring touch, as the team has made a significant investment in his talents. Good health from Backstrom would also go a long way to improve goal scoring. The team likely expects rebound seasons from Laich and Ward offensively, along with a significant contribution from Wolski. There's also the expectation that Johansson develops into a legitimate top six forward, and that Carlson and Orlov will become power play scorers. That's a lot to hope for in one season, and any combination of injury and ineffectiveness among the top playmakers could lead to continued goal-scoring woes.
Just last summer, most considered the Southeast Division as Washington's to lose. No longer. The surprise success story of the regular season was Florida's division crown, although that was thanks in large part to Gary Bettman's Loser Point™. Still, their top six forwards are dangerous, and what was seen as a dumping ground for Brian Campbell's contract turned into a Norris-worthy performance. Tampa Bay still has a considerable amount of forward talent on their roster, although they are gambling on another new number one goaltender, Anders Lindback. Carolina spent money like it was going out of style, bringing in Jordan Staal, Alex Semin, and Joe Corvo (heh, have fun with that,) and signing Jeff Skinner and Staal to big extensions. They will be a team to be reckoned with next season. And don't forget Winnipeg, the hockey-starved community turning out for Jets games in droves. The new ownership seems prepared to spend money as well, as they extended Ondrej Pavelec and Tobias Enstrom, brought in Olli Jokinen and Alex Ponikarovsky, and just inked a mega-deal with Evander Kane.
Long story short, the Capitals have their work cut out for them in 2012-13.
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