I came into the day telling myself I was going to buy two out of three superstars who would be the cornerstones of my team; Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. They are my favorite non-Cubs in baseball, and I was prepared to go up to $45 for each one of them, essentially soaking up about 40% of my auction money for 13% of my auction players, if I was indeed successful in getting two. The first round of the auction saw Justin Verlander fall into my lap for below market value, but still at a steep enough price that I was wary of overspending for my targeted bats. So I let Longoria go for $41, which I thought was high but still below my ceiling, and intended to buy Upton and Tulo. To my surprise, Tulo went for $50, followed by Upton for $48. I give myself credit for my restraint, instead settling on Joey Votto for $44. The rest of the auction was a bit of panic mode on my part -- since most of my roster projections included Longo at third, I ended up overpaying (in my opinion) for Ryan Zimmerman at $26. I also overpaid for some of my favorite pitchers, and was left floating guys I wanted for $1 at the end of the auction and hoping everyone passed. It worked most of the time, but it cost me a shot at Matt Wieters, Michael Cuddyer, Dee Gordon, James Shields, B.J. Upton, Freddie Freeman, and Anibal Sanchez, all guys I thought were undervalued.
Now, without further ado, here is my team as it stands after draft day:
AUCTION
- Justin Verlander, SP, DET ($32)
- Joey Votto, 1B, CIN ($44)
- Michael Young, 1B/2B/3B, TEX ($20)
- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS ($26)
- J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL ($6)
- Brian McCann, C, ATL ($20)
- Jered Weaver, SP, LAA ($34)
- Adam Wainwright, SP, STL ($23)
- Matt Garza, SP, CHC ($9)
- Neil Walker, 2B, PIT ($2)
- Carlos Marmol, RP, CHC ($1)
- Colby Rasmus, OF, TOR ($1)
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP, WAS ($1)
- Derek Holland, SP, TEX ($2)
- Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR ($4)
- Martin Prado, 3B/OF, ATL
- Carlos Beltran, OF, STL
- J.J. Putz, RP, ARI
- Rafael Betancourt, RP, COL
- Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, NYY
- Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA
- Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
- Brett Myers, SP/RP, HOU
- Brennan Boesch, OF, DET
Analysis after the jump...
Favorite auction pickup: Justin Verlander - In a league that counts strikeouts, I really don't know how I ended up with Verlander for so little. He ended up being the seventh most expensive pitcher, and granted, everyone more expensive than Verlander could out-perform him this season (Halladay, Kershaw, Lincecum, Lee, F.Hernandez, Sabathia) but he was only three more dollars than Strasburg for God's sake.
Best trick of the auction: Michael Young - I don't think many people realized Yahoo's system listed Young as 2B-eligible. I'm not especially high or low on Young this year, but I do think I pulled a fast one in getting a top five guy at the keystone on the cheap. Cano ($42), Kinsler ($36), and Pedroia ($37) were significantly more expensive.
Blunder purchase of the auction: Brian McCann - I love McCann. He's by far the most consistent producer at a volatile position. But someone else nominated him before the market for catchers was really set. The only one before him was Carlos Santana ($19), but once Mauer ($15), Posey ($19) and Napoli ($17) went, I felt a little better. But then Wieters went for $3, Soto and Arencibia went in the draft portion, and Miguel Montero went undrafted and now I wish I had those $20 back for some outfield help.
Blunder pass of the auction: Evan Longoria - I think Longo is going to be the 2012 AL MVP. I passed on him at $41 because I thought I could still buy the 2012 NL MVP (Tulowitzki) for around that much. But not only did I lose both of them, I reached on Longo's replacement. If I could go back, I think I could talk myself into going up to $45 or $46 for him.
Favorite draft pickup: Peter Bourjos - With all the noise surrounding Angels camp, Bourjos seems to be a forgotten man. But he delivered a solid first full season, and should get the vast majority of PAs in center. Of course, if Vernon Wells bounces (way) back and Mike Trout kills AAA pitching, he could be in a platoon or fourth outfielder territory. But he has major upside for runs and stolen bases, and the 12 home runs he had last season won't kill you in that category. Thinking 90/10/60/40/.290 upside for a guy in essentially the 21st round is pretty damn good.
Best trick of the draft: Brett Myers - SP-eligible closer? Enough said.
Blunder pick of the draft: Dexter Fowler- Let's be honest -- my outfield is terrible. I will be trading from my team strength (SP) to fill in some of the holes. But even I should know better than to get sucked into the high upside of Fowler. To quote Baseball Prospectus 2012, "[His] skill set is baffling. He runs well but is a poor base-stealer. He isn't a power hitter but he struggles to make contact." Last year, he scored 84 runs. Three years ago, he stole 27 bases. Those are the only impressive stats he's accumulated in his 3+ year career at the major league level, and he turns 26 in a couple weeks. The talent and opportunity is there for a 80/15/80/30/.280 season. But once again, I should know better.
Blunder pass of the draft: Adam Dunn - With the fifth pick of the last (24th) round, my buddy called the name that haunted me for all of 2011. Adam. Dunn. I made him my fourth round pick last year. And he was about as bad at baseball as you can be. Once again, BP2012 says, "There have been 2,300 qualifying player-seasons where a batter slugged over .500, and last year Dunn became the first to follow up such a year by slugging below .300." Slash stats of .159/.292/.277 get you fired if you're a backup catcher, much less a primary DH. Conflict with Ozzie Guillen? Secret injury? Bad off-season training? It doesn't matter now, but whatever the case, odds are that it won't sap Dunn's normally consistent power in 2012. In fact, the same publication predicts he will finish within the top 20 in the league in home runs. I just couldn't bring myself to do it. In the heat of the draft, I remembered too many lonely nights, with Hawk Harrelson's voice making my waking nightmare slightly more folksy and enjoyable, but still...
NOTE: Since the draft, Adam Dunn was released, cleared waivers, and I dropped Dexter Fowler to pick him up off the free agent scrap heap. Double down!
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